The UAE, which was Kenya’s dominant provider initially of the yr, noticed its shipments fall sharply from round 90,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in January to about 15,000 kb/d in August, in response to the info cited within the report.
Citing data from Belgian commodity-data firm Kpler, Dallas-based power economist Anas Alhajji mentioned, “India has changed the UAE and Saudi Arabia because the provider of gasoline, diesel, jet gas, and gas oil to Kenya.”
India’s refining energy comes into focus
India’s rising position in Kenya comes because the nation leverages its giant refining capability and versatile export routes. Based on the Ministry of Petroleum and Pure Fuel, India is the world’s fourth-largest oil refiner and Asia’s second-largest, with 22 operational refineries and put in capability of 258.1 million tonnes yearly.
Indian refiners exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum merchandise in 2025-26, regardless of the nation importing greater than 90% of its crude oil. The world’s largest oil-refining advanced, Reliance Industries’ facility at Jamnagar in Gujarat, can be positioned in India.
The disruption has additionally coincided with a broader enhance in India’s gas exports to Africa. Alhajji mentioned India’s petroleum-product exports to Africa reached a document excessive in July, rising 66% year-on-year. He attributed the shift partly to the European Union’s restrictions on imports of petroleum merchandise refined from Russian crude in third international locations, which redirected Indian cargoes in the direction of different markets.
Kenya turns to India for gas safety
Kenya had historically relied closely on Gulf producers below its government-to-government gas procurement system, with Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC and Emirates Nationwide Oil Firm amongst its key suppliers.
Proof of India’s increasing position emerged earlier this yr. Official paperwork reviewed by Enterprise Each day Africa confirmed that 82.38 million litres of kerosene loaded at Sikka port in India had been discharged at Mombasa on March 19. An extra 156.75 million litres, comprising 81.15 million litres of kerosene and 75.6 million litres of diesel, had been scheduled for cargo from Sikka in April.
Vortexa information cited by Argus additionally confirmed round 60,000 tonnes of gasoline shipped from India to Kenya in April.
Kenya’s general petroleum-product inflows stood at round 200 kb/d in July and 185 kb/d in August, indicating that the disruption has resulted in a reconfiguration of provide sources fairly than a collapse in gas imports.
Commerce ties deepen alongside gas flows
India’s exports to Kenya elevated 151.41% by worth in July 2026 from a yr earlier, in response to the Ministry of Commerce and Business. The rise covers all product classes, though petroleum merchandise had been a serious contributor to India’s broader export development.
Globally, India’s petroleum-product exports rose 67.64%, from $4.13 billion in July 2025 to $6.92 billion in July 2026.
India was Kenya’s third-largest buying and selling companion in 2025-26, with bilateral commerce reaching $4.31 billion. Indian exports accounted for $4.01 billion, whereas imports from Kenya stood at $290 million. Petroleum merchandise are among the many principal Indian exports to Kenya.
The shift highlights India’s rising position as a swing provider of refined fuels when geopolitical disruptions have an effect on conventional provide routes. As Center Jap and Russian gas flows stay susceptible to battle and delivery disruptions, Indian refiners are more and more positioned to serve markets going through shortages.
