As a number one world mining trade participant in 2025, Australia recognises that to keep up its foothold and entice funding, it must be a frontrunner of the power transition, a fast adopter of its sustainable applied sciences and a serious producer of the essential minerals wanted to provide them.
The nation accounts for 36.4% of the world’s lead reserves, 29.4% of its manganese and 29% of its iron ore. It additionally has huge reserves of zinc, gold, cobalt, silver and bauxite, as probably the most resource-rich nation on this planet, and ranks among the many high three world producers for bauxite, lead and zinc. It’s among the many high world producers of an array of commodities, together with lithium and iron ore, accounting for 39.8% and 37.3% of worldwide output, respectively.
Australia’s world commodity manufacturing share by finish of 2024. Credit score: GlobalData.
Australia’s mining trade bolsters the financial system by contributing greater than 12% to GDP and representing round 70% of export earnings. This features a reasonable presence within the coal market, accounting for five% of worldwide output.
A deep dive right into a yr’s value of knowledge and insights from MINE Australia’s father or mother firm, GlobalData, reveals a rustic battling risky commodity costs, operational prices and abilities shortages however nonetheless managing to develop its mining trade.
Regardless of that, Gayathri Siripurapu, senior mining analyst at GlobalData, notes: “Progress was evident throughout upstream mining, midstream processing and downstream clean-energy inputs, together with battery supplies, uncommon earth refining, inexperienced iron and low-carbon applied sciences.”
If something, 2025 has made clear that how Australia weans its financial system off its coal market dependency, navigates securing its essential mineral provide chain and overcomes commodity volatility will decide its future on the worldwide mining enjoying discipline.
International decarbonisation, power transition necessities and efforts by main economies, together with Australia, to diversify their essential minerals provide chains away from China’s monopoly, drove the growth of Australia’s essential mineral sector in 2025.
Demand for lithium, nickel, copper, uncommon earths, and manganese has grown, as they’re key to the manufacturing of electrical autos, renewable power infrastructure, batteries, hydrogen electrolysers and defence purposes.
Australia additionally made strikes to safe its provides within the long-term, together with the signing of a landmark take care of the US in October to fortify world provide chains for essential minerals and uncommon earths.
“Australia retained its place as a safe, low-risk provider, supported by sturdy ESG credentials, a world-class mining, gear and know-how providers sector and a extremely expert mining base,” says Siripurapu.
Federal coverage help such because the Crucial Minerals Technique, a A$4bn Crucial Minerals Facility, the Nationwide Reconstruction Fund and the Crucial Minerals Manufacturing Tax Incentive, assisted in strengthening funding confidence and inspiring downstream processing.
Manufacturing wins: lithium, iron ore, zinc and extra
GlobalData expects Australia’s lithium output to rise by 2.7% in 2025 to 114.4 kilotonnes, persevering with an upward output trajectory from 111.4 kilotonnes in 2024. It anticipates a compound annual progress fee (CAGR) of 5.2% to achieve 147.3 kilotonnes in 2030, pushed by the beginning of the Liontown Sources’ Kathleen Valley Challenge in July 2024 and SQM’s Mt Holland Lithium mission in H1 2024.
Australia’s iron ore manufacturing is predicted to develop by 1.4% in 2025, adopted by a 2.8% CAGR throughout the forecast interval of 2025-2030 to achieve 1,108.7 million tonnes (mt). The ramp down at BHP’s Yandi mine, which is slated to shut earlier than 2027, triggered output to flatten in 2024.
Zinc manufacturing is trying to decide up following 4 consecutive years of decline, in response to GlobalData figures. It’ll expertise a modest restoration in 2025, with projected progress of 1.6% to 1,133.8 kilotonnes. Tasks that began in 2025 will drive output, together with the Federation Underground, Endeavor and Woodlawn Enlargement. Nonetheless, GlobalData notes the rise is comparatively small and unlikely to offset challenges within the wider provide panorama. It tasks a decline at a unfavorable CAGR of two.3%, hitting 1,009.8 kilotonnes by 2030, pushed by mine closures.
Manganese manufacturing skilled a serious restoration milestone in Could 2025, following disruption by Cyclone Megan in 2024. Consequently, GlobalData tasks manufacturing to rise sharply by 8.7% to 4.7 kilotonnes in 2025. Nonetheless, the scheduled closure of the Groote Eylandt mine in 2029 is anticipated to drive output right down to round two kilotonnes by 2030.
Gold manufacturing is ready to climb following 2025, from 10.2 million ounces (moz) to round 13.2moz by 2030, alongside key tasks such because the Hemi Gold Challenge and as operational recoveries at established mines come on-line.
As for bauxite output, its information reveals flat progress in 2025 pushed by Stage 2 growth of manufacturing capability at Metro Mining’s Bauxite Hills mine. Wanting forward, the nation’s bauxite output is projected to stay comparatively flat, with a CAGR of 0.8%, reaching 106mt by 2030.
Manufacturing challenges: copper, nickel and lead
GlobalData expects copper output to fall by 7.9% to 710.4 kilotonnes in 2025. The drop is basically attributed to the closure of the Mount Isa mine in 2024 and operational disruptions at key mines. Nonetheless, output will decide up from 2026 as working circumstances normalise, hitting 1,073.2 kilotonnes in 2030.
The nickel market skilled world oversupply and weaker costs. This oversupply, which began in 2022 and is especially from Indonesia, led BHP to curtail its Nickel West operations in December 2024, leading to a projected 6.6% decline in mined output by 2026.
The scheduled closure of Potosi/Silver Peak this yr and Rasp subsequent yr, which each have depleting reserves, along with a hearth on the Century Tailings mine in 2024, which left it positioned below care and upkeep, go away expectations bleak for 2025 lead output. GlobalData expects output to drop from 481.2 kilotonnes in 2024 to 466.8 kilotonnes this yr and finally to 442.6 kilotonnes by 2030, because of deliberate closures of Rosebery in 2028 and the Cannington mine in 2029.
Winding down coal manufacturing and ramping up essential mineral output
Australia’s coal sector is a central pillar of its mining trade, boosted by Queensland’s expert workforce and developed infrastructure, which contributes 90% of the nation’s metallurgical coal. The nation’s coal output is predicted to stay flat earlier than rising reasonably towards the tip of 2030. This shall be primarily because of operational enhancements and new approvals, says GlobalData.
Manufacturing is forecast to rise from 465.3mt in 2025 to round 482.8mt by 2030, regardless of softening demand from China, because the nation makes a strategic transfer to extend home manufacturing.
Nonetheless, concurrently, Australia is making efforts to ramp down its coal market. Roughly 24 coal mines are slated for closure up till 2030, and smaller mining industries in different states are making strikes to provide low-carbon economies.
Though mining accounts for a comparatively small share of Victoria’s gross state product, contributing round A$1bn–A$1.2bn yearly, the state prioritised increasing its mineral potential by way of essential minerals improvement, new exploration tasks, and stronger neighborhood engagement frameworks this yr. It’s additionally one of many few jurisdictions to provide antimony, which is essential for battery and defence applied sciences.
In early 2025, the Victorian state authorities launched its Crucial Minerals Roadmap, detailing objectives to draw funding in minerals equivalent to antimony, zircon, uncommon earths and titanium and promote moral sourcing requirements and downstream processing.
The state is even intensifying rehabilitation applications for decommissioned coal mines, exploring methods to repurpose the Latrobe Valley, which was as soon as the core of Victoria’s brown coal trade, for renewable power.
Tasmania has continued its essential minerals drive, following the formalisation of its plans within the Crucial Minerals Technique, printed in November 2024. In October 2025, the regional authorities signed a federal funding settlement to hold out a feasibility examine for establishing a typical person processing facility for essential minerals. The examine will examine processing alternatives within the northwest of the state, specializing in tin and tungsten. The initiative goals to bolster the state’s function in Australia’s essential minerals sector by selling value-added processing, new downstream industries and native job creation.
Extra broadly, Australia is within the third yr of its Crucial Minerals Technique 2023-30, which targets A$500bn in export potential. New tasks equivalent to Liontown’s Kathleen Valley, Iluka’s Eneabba uncommon earth refinery and Arafura’s Nolans NdPr mission reinforce this potential.
It’s turning into more and more obvious that Australia’s mining operators should keep on high of rising applied sciences if they’re to stay aggressive and meet rising demand for transition minerals all through and past the power transition.
Jack Kennedy, mining and deeptech investor on the enterprise studio and startup accelerator Founders Manufacturing facility, says: “These applied sciences are making it doable to determine deposits quicker, deploy capital extra effectively, and construct operations that be taught and adapt in actual time.
“The place we’re heading is a sector that’s extra agile, related and resilient, constructed on clever useful resource techniques, the place AI, robotics, bio-innovation and ecosystem intelligence.”
Main miners, together with Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue and Roy Hill, continued to scale autonomous haulage, drilling and rail techniques, with autonomous fleets “accounting for greater than half of haul truck actions within the Pilbara by mid-2025, delivering productiveness, security and value advantages amid labour constraints,” says Siripurapu.
In the meantime, Epiroc transformed all 78 haul vehicles at Hancock Iron Ore’s Roy Hill mine to autonomous operation utilizing its authentic gear manufacturer-agnostic LinkOA system.
Electrification progressed later within the yr with BHP’s introduction of Australia’s first Cat 793 XE battery-electric haul vehicles at its Jimblebar mine in December to cut back diesel utilization and emissions.
Regardless of productiveness positive aspects from automation, labour shortages throughout key areas equivalent to mining engineering, upkeep, electrical trades, and automation continued to push wages larger.
Excessive wages and inflation have led to rising operational prices. Mining wage progress averaged 5.3% in 2024, above the nationwide common.
“Value pressures had been compounded by larger power costs, consumables inflation, rising sustaining capex, and stricter security and environmental compliance necessities,” says Siripurapu.
Though the trade displayed resilience total, indicators of monetary stress started to emerge all year long. For instance, the Burton coal mine in Queensland went into administration, BHP introduced job cuts at Saraji South and Anglo American’s Queensland coal operations, and liquidity pressures at some mid-tier producers.
Equally, ability shortages in essential areas of engineering, drilling and heavy equipment slowed mission ramp-ups, and are anticipated to proceed into 2026.
“We’re seeing an ageing workforce and an absence of recent entrants – many younger Australians see mining as environmentally damaging or outdated, which is widening the generational hole and intensifying the abilities scarcity,” says Kennedy.
“If you mix that scarcity with the tendency for large-scale tasks to exceed budgets – typically because of disconnected information, gradual resolution cycles and inflexible mission design – it’s clear the trade should adapt and alter to satisfy such challenges.”
“Australian mining trade: 2025 assessment ” was initially created and printed by Mining Know-how, a GlobalData owned model.
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