Edited excerpts from a chat:
Nifty ended the week decrease as IT shares dragged the index. How do you see the risk-reward altering for the week forward?
The Nifty opened gap-down amid heavy morning promoting in IT shares, triggered by unfavorable cues from the US markets—notably the NASDAQ, which was hammered in a single day. By the top of the session, the IT index staged a sensible restoration from the day’s low; nevertheless, the headline index nonetheless closed deep within the crimson. In the meantime, India VIX, the actual villain of the day, moved again above its 200DMA, indicating rising worry and volatility through the session.
The chart setup seems considerably weak, with the index slipping beneath its 20DMA for the primary time within the final 3–4 classes. Technically, the index has additionally fallen beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally from 24,571 to 26,341.
Because the index has closed beneath the help of 25,500, we anticipate the Nifty to stay weak with a possible to fall in direction of 25,000 within the quick time period. On the upper finish, resistance is positioned at 25,800.
Nifty IT index ended the week 8% decrease as buyers stay apprehensive concerning the affect of AI. Do you see some shorting alternatives right here?
The IT index has been witnessing a extremely risky and uneven uptrend. Initially, it delivered a false breakout after which corrected sharply, an abrupt transfer that caught many off guard. Subsequently, it broke beneath the help of its rising trendline at 35,400—a stage I had highlighted because the “make-or-break” zone in final week’s ET Market View, triggering a steep decline towards 31,422.
As well as, a hidden bearish divergence is seen on the weekly RSI, indicating weakening underlying momentum and reinforcing the cautious outlook for the sector.
Defence shares are doing nicely. How would you commerce, and do you see extra upside?
The defence sector, although restricted in participation, maintained relative power through the week. On the weekly chart, a noticeable spike was noticed within the present session, and the index continued to carry above its 20-week SMA, reflecting sustained optimistic momentum.I anticipate this constructive sentiment to persist within the quick time period. Moreover, a number of shares throughout the area are hovering simply above their speedy help ranges, which might act as a base for additional upside if broader market situations stay supportive.
SBI was among the many prime weekly gainers. Do you suppose extra upside is left?
SBI has rallied sharply in latest classes following a consolidation breakout on the weekly chart. The pattern stays sturdy and is more likely to maintain within the quick time period as nicely.
Nevertheless, it could be prudent to build up the inventory in a staggered method. Dips needs to be utilised as shopping for alternatives from a medium-term funding perspective.
Give me your prime buying and selling concepts for the week
Promote Indian Lodges | Entry: 700 | Cease Loss: 717 | Goal: 670
The inventory has shaped a decrease excessive on the day by day chart, indicating subdued shopping for curiosity at increased ranges. It has additionally slipped beneath its 20DMA, reflecting short-term weak spot in pattern construction. Moreover, the RSI has developed a hidden bearish divergence, signalling fading momentum.
Given the present technical setup, the inventory might stay beneath stress within the close to time period, with potential draw back towards 670. On the upside, 717 acts as speedy resistance; a sustained transfer above this stage might negate the bearish bias.
Promote Persistent | Entry: 5,480 | Cease Loss: 5,600 | Goal: 5,280
Though the inventory witnessed a sensible intraday restoration after a gap-down opening, it had earlier damaged beneath its 200DMA, suggesting a unfavorable short-term pattern. On the hourly chart, the inventory seems to be on the verge of a breakdown. The RSI has additionally damaged beneath a rising trendline, reinforcing the weakening momentum.
Primarily based on the prevailing technical construction, a bearish view may be drawn, with the worth doubtlessly drifting towards 5,280. Instant resistance is positioned at 5,600.
Purchase Kirlosker Eng | Entry: 1,379 | Cease Loss: 1,325 | Goal: 1,500
The inventory has moved above its earlier swing excessive, supported by wholesome volumes, indicating strengthening shopping for curiosity. The RSI is in a bullish crossover and trending increased, reflecting enhancing momentum. Moreover, the worth has sustained above its 20DMA, supporting the optimistic bias.
Within the quick time period, the inventory might advance towards 1,500. Instant help is positioned at 1,325; a decisive breach beneath this stage might weaken the prevailing uptrend.
