The Taiwan greenback’s fast appreciation within the second quarter led to hypothesis of a “Plaza Accord 2.0” — a coordinated effort to weaken the US greenback — echoing the historic 1985 settlement amongst G5 nations. The unique Plaza Accord was designed to deal with giant US commerce deficits by engineering a managed depreciation of the greenback by means of joint forex intervention. It marked a uncommon and highly effective instance of worldwide forex coordination.
Any new Plaza-style settlement at the moment would face far larger monetary and geopolitical hurdles than it did 40 years in the past. Certainly, if US policymakers search to stimulate home manufacturing by depreciating the greenback, they have to additionally account for the rising prices and dangers related to international commerce, capital flows, and market stability.
This put up examines the potential penalties of a coordinated greenback depreciation at the moment — from FX volatility and insurance coverage danger to broader macroeconomic impacts.
A Weaker Greenback Might Heighten World FX Volatility
A weaker US greenback may have a dramatic impact on the FX market and, particularly, on Taiwanese life insurance coverage firms. A January 2025 FT article identified that these firms maintain property equal to 140% of Taiwan’s GDP. A considerable portion of those holdings are in US-dollar-denominated bonds solely partially hedged for FX volatility.
Taiwan has loved widening present account surpluses due largely to robust demand for its semiconductors. To handle the ensuing FX reserve development and to take care of FX stability, the native financial authority permitted life insurance coverage firms to swap their Taiwan {dollars} for US {dollars} within the FX reserve. The insurers then swapped USD to purchase US fixed-income property to satisfy future (insurance coverage coverage) obligations.
Regardless of shifting the majority of their portfolio property to US {dollars}, many of the insurance coverage insurance policies (agency liabilities) stay denominated in native forex. The consequence could be a big forex mismatch the place sharp declines within the US greenback would cut back the worth of US-dollar-denominated bonds akin to US Treasuries held by Taiwanese insurance coverage firms, leaving the insurance coverage firms with inadequate property to match their liabilities.
The unique Plaza Accord signed by the G-5 nations in 1985 was agreed upon below the backdrop of a comparatively benign macro atmosphere. A hypothetical “Plaza Accord 2.0” to depreciate the US greenback would seemingly enhance strain on Taiwan’s insurers and their risk-management efforts. This vicious cycle would exacerbate strain and amplify FX market volatility.
Taiwanese insurance coverage firms are additionally uncovered to period dangers. The US greenback bonds held by Taiwanese insurance coverage firms are longer-duration (with larger rate of interest sensitivity than short-maturity debt). Gross sales of those property would seemingly elevate long-term US rates of interest and transmit rate of interest volatility throughout markets.
Taiwanese insurers should not alone of their publicity to such a danger. Related carry-trade flows (promote native forex, purchase US greenback and dollar-denominated property) with the Japanese yen within the third quarter of 2024 triggered a brief-but-disruptive volatility surge throughout main asset markets.
The US Commerce Deficit’s Hidden Function
A “Plaza Accord 2.0” coming 40 years after the unique accord would wish to account for the US commerce deficit as a part of a round forex circulate to fund the US authorities. In 1985, the US deficit was at $211.9 billion. By 2024 it had risen to $1.8 trillion. Equally, the US debt ballooned from $1.8 trillion in 1985 to $36.2 trillion within the second quarter this yr. Non-US exporters reinvesting commerce surplus {dollars} in US Treasuries (lending surplus {dollars} again to the US authorities) are a key supply of liquidity within the US bond market:
Beneath the current paradigm, a decrease US commerce deficit would seemingly disrupt the reinvestment of exporter greenback commerce surpluses, which may scale back overseas demand at US Treasury auctions and negatively have an effect on secondary market liquidity situations.
“Plaza Accord 2.0’s” Nuanced Affect On a Leaner US Manufacturing Sector
The US manufacturing sector has advanced considerably over the previous 40 years. In response to BEA knowledge, the US manufacturing sector’s share of nominal GDP fell to 9.9% in 4Q 2024 from 18.5% in 1985.The whole variety of employees within the manufacturing sector additionally declined. In April 1985, manufacturing staff as a share of whole non-farm payrolls was 18.4%. By April 2025, that quantity had dropped to eight.0%. The discount in manufacturing headcount (with improved productiveness, till good points started to stagnate within the late 2000s) implies US manufacturing had change into extra environment friendly between 1987 and 2007:
Thus, a modified manufacturing trade with comparatively smaller payrolls now than in 1985 would seemingly profit otherwise from impacts of Plaza type accords than 4 a long time in the past, when extra households have been straight collaborating within the trade.
Assessing the Threat Reward of “Plaza Accord 2.0”
Research on the impression of the unique Plaza Accord concluded that alternate charge shifts in the end led to modifications in commerce balances with a lag of two years. An analogous lag would seemingly apply at the moment, elevating questions on whether or not a brand new Plaza-style intervention may meaningfully assist US manufacturing — now a leaner, smaller share of GDP — with out triggering broader monetary disruptions. In comparison with 1985, at the moment’s international system is extra interconnected and extra reliant on the greenback, significantly by means of overseas holdings of US debt. Any coordinated effort to weaken the greenback would wish to stability potential industrial good points in opposition to dangers to FX stability, institutional asset-liability mismatches, and the functioning of US debt markets. The price-benefit equation for “Plaza Accord 2.0” is much extra advanced than it was 4 a long time in the past.
Requires a “Plaza Accord 2.0” replicate rising concern over US commerce imbalances and industrial competitiveness. However not like in 1985, the worldwide financial system at the moment is extra advanced, with deeper interdependencies and extra fragile monetary linkages. A brand new Plaza-style settlement would carry unintended penalties — from FX volatility and insurance-sector danger in Asia to disruptions in US debt financing and financial coverage transmission.
Beneath the unique Plaza Accord, forex shifts took years to affect commerce balances, underscoring the lag between intervention and impression. Policymakers should subsequently assess whether or not the advantages to a leaner US manufacturing base would outweigh the dangers to international markets, institutional stability, and US fiscal operations. On this atmosphere, the risk-reward calculus of forex coordination appears to be like way more sophisticated than it did 40 years in the past.
